Since Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) was elected president in May 2022, some leaders of the federal member states of Somalia rushed local parliaments into term extensions.
The President of Jubaland State, Mr. Ahmed Madobe, extended his term for one year, followed by President Abdiaziz Laftagareen of South-West State (SWS) and President Ahmed Karie Qoorqoor of Galmudug.
Regional leaders feared that the new administration in Mogadishu would seek to remove them from office in the upcoming regional presidential elections. Recent events, such as the dramatic disagreement over budget support last September, point in this direction.
Moreover, the official mandate of President Laftagareen ends on December 19. The SWS regional parliament, however, voted to extend his mandate by one year. A move the central government has yet to officially comment on, but which many commentators justly believe it disagrees with, judging by the current commotion.
Nonetheless, Mr Laftagareen, a nationalist leader, was a close ally of former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo whose government faced strong opposition from a group of presidential aspirants led by current President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
Besides, a group of presidential hopefuls from SWS have declared their alliance in Mogadishu. This group is politically associated to UDP, a political party led by HSM and the speaker of the Lower House of the federal parliament of Somalia, Sheikh Aden Madobe.
Consequently, President HSM, a bitter critic of Farmaajo, shunned the South-West State parliament’s decision to extend Laftagareen’s term and is now determined to unseat him whether there is agreement on a possible local presidential election or not.
On the other hand, in a sign Laftagareen would not cow to the federal administration’s demand, his Information Minister, Mr. Ilyaas, has recently said that no politician from Mogadishu would be allowed to land in Baidoa without the consent of the SWS regional authorities.
Consequently, several politicians were already denied entry into the regional state while others were arrested upon their landing.
The Scramble for Political Alliances
In a different move, President Laftagareen was warmly received in Garowe by president Said Deni of Puntland State of Somalia. Mr Laftagareen’s visit in Puntland was seen as an indicator to the growing relations between the two regional leaders.
This alliance is a new approach to tackling increasingly growing influence by president HSM who recently made major military victories in some parts of South-Central regions where government forces removed Alshabab militias. The military is helped by local militias known as Ma’awisley.
The two regional leaders have reportedly agreed to organize a new opposition front against President HSM’s encroachment on their respective territorial jurisdictions and the growing hostility towards them.
Also, Sheikh Aden Madoobe visited the town of Hudur, the capital of Bakool, one of the three SWS regions. His presence reportedly consists in organizing an uprising of the locals against Alshabab. However, experts have pointed to the fact that Mr Madoobe is not a military leader and, as a federal elected official and interim president, has no direct role in regional state affairs.
Mr. Madoobe is now in Baidoa thanks to the British ambassador Kate Foster who went there exceptionally to “persuade” Laftagareen not to stand in his way. The Speaker’s visit aims to implement a regional “reconciliation conference” sponsored by the US and UK ambassadors. President Laftagareen welcomed him to his native region despite their strong disagreement.
Sheikh Aden Madobe, a close ally of President HSM, is believed to be working behind the scenes in the alliance against Laftagareen. These SWS opposition politicians, of whom Sharif Hassan, a politician previously barred from SWS, is prominent, are busy in Mogadishu preparing to replace Laftagareen.
The upheaval that threatens to engulf the South West region has other ramifications beyond the Somali border. Ethiopia has a particular interest in this region because of Alshabab militants who, a few months ago, infiltrated its territory from Bakool. For this reason, he takes a dim view of the destabilization of the current administration, which risks diverting attention to the fight against Alshabab.
Ethiopia previously backed Laftagareen in the 2018 presidential election, where pro-opposition leader, former number two Alshabab leader, Sheikh Mukhtar Robow Abu Mansoor, was the main presidential contender. Abu Mansoor was arrested by Ethiopian troops operating under the African Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) stationed in Baidoa.
Last but not least, Sheikh Aden Madobe recently met with the British and American ambassadors in Mogadishu a few days before his departure for Hudur. It is believed that the meeting was aimed at garnering support for a possible replacement of President Laftagareen.
To this effect, it should be recalled that American and British soldiers, and foreign security firms are stationed in Balidogle airfield in SWS and these nations have previously prepared Mukhtar Robow to lead the region before his arrest in 2018. They never pardoned President Farmaajo for installing Laftagareen instead against their wish.
