The Election Games series is an ongoing Somali genre that mixes scripted and unscripted real-life political intrigue. Most of the players featured in this male-dominated series are Somalis and are real politicians, warlords, mercenaries and foreign handlers operating from the shadow.
As in any well-run story, this Somali saga begins with an initial situation, brings together protagonists with competing interests, triggers, twists and turns and an outcome that leads to an unexpected situation that relaunches the plot.
Somali election Games 2021 is a political thriller full of suspense. It contains some violence, betrayals, brinkmanship divisive and aggressive language which is unsuitable for younger and sensitive minds. People with a history of high blood pressure, anxiety or trauma may avoid this series. In all cases, the discretion and patience of the viewers are advised.
Plot
This election saga takes place mainly in Mogadishu and focused on President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo attempt to be reelected for a second 4-year term. In this real life Somali intrigue-filled plot, friends become foes, foes become friends. Everyone however wants to be the next president or at least get rich by any means.
The main story is about a president who is trying his best to stay on course to get an election through the one-person-one vote or direct election system hoping to get reelected without passing through the old clan-based indirect voting system. All his opponents are united against his nationalist agenda. They are old corrupt politicians who don’t like his fight against corruption, a terrorist group, foreign troops and mercenaries who don’t like the rebuilding of a powerful security forces. Local opponents benefited from the pre-Farmajo chaos to plunder state coffers and hastily and cheaply sell the country’s resources to foreign companies.
There are also foreign governments and corporations who lurk around Somalia’s rich mineral resources and made shady deals with previous corrupt presidents and ministers. These foreign countries include neighboring countries that took advantage of chaotic old Somalia and don’t see well Farmajo’s imperious ways and his vision for a united and strong Somali nation. All foreign dark forces have local representatives and relays. All local and foreign opponents see the president as an intruder who must be got rid of by all means.
Cast
On the Government camp: Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo as the current Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) president; Mohamed Mursal as the Speaker of the Lower House; Abdi-Aziz Laftagaren as the Southwest region president; Mohamed Ware as the Hirshabelle president; Ali Gudlawe as the Hirshabelle president; Abdi Karie Qoorqoor as the Galmudug president; Omar Filish as Benadir Governor and Mogadishu Mayor; Abdirahman Beyle as the Minister of Finance; Mahdi Guled as the Deputy Prime Minister; Osman Dubbe as the Minister of Information; Fahad Yasin as the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) Director; Halima Ibrahim “ Yarey” (National Independent Electoral Commission head).
Characters who change camps: Hassan Khayre as Prime Minister, opposition candidate and militia leader; Mohamed Roble as Prime Minister; Abdirashid Janan as Jubaland Minister and warlord.
Opposition camp: Said Deni as the Puntland president; Ahmed Madobe as the Jubaland president; Abdi Hashi as the Speaker of the Upper House; Hassan Sheikh Mahamoud as the previous FGS president, opposition candidate and militia leader, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed as former FGS president and opposition candidate, Abdirahman Abdishakur as opposition candidate and militia leader; Musa Bihi as the Somaliland president; Al-Shabab network.
Foreign opposition: James Swan as the Special Representative of UN Secretariat general; Kate Foster as the new British ambassador; Nicolas Berlanga as the European Union Representative; Uhuru Kenyatta as Kenyan president; Ismail Omar Guelleh as the Djibouti president; Nairobi-based think-tanks; Media groups (BBC, VOA, Al-Jazeera, The Guardian…).
Characters, roles and intrigue
As everyone sets traps to prevent him from being reelected, Farmajo, our main hero, seems adept at avoiding obstacles but after each victory things get more complicated. He loses a lot of friends along the way but also eliminates some foes. The public, however, is charmed by his ability to overcome tricky challenges and concerted attacks while remaining true to his values. Farmajo has made many enemies just for his stubborn refusal to settle Kenya’s claim to the Somali Sea out of court.
His local enemies are threefold. First, Said Deni, a highly unreliable and unpredictable politician who plays everyone, friends and foes alike, and Ahmed Madobe, a veteran Kenyan stooge whose future hangs by a thread if Farmajo is reelected.
Second, the thirteen presidential candidates based in Mogadishu’s Jazeera Hotel, mostly hailing from the same clan. Their group includes Hassan Mahamoud, the most corrupt president Somalia has ever seen, and Abdirahman Abdishakur, former minister who signed off the Somali sea to Kenya, two firebrand who see violence and clan hatred as a way to eliminate Farmajo from the election.
The third opposition are foreign governments, mainly neighboring countries (Kenya and Djibouti), Europeans (United Kingdom, France, Norway), Arab countries (Emirates, Qatar, Egypt and Saudi Arabia) and the United States. All of them using local handlers or mercenaries under their payroll or international forum like the United Nations Security Council, the African Union Peace and Security Council and even the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to limit Farmajo abilities to govern and be reelected. This third group serves as scriptwriters for the local opposition.
Farmajo has also allies or friends. Most of them are ministers in his government and the heads of the security forces he nominated. So far, his loyal allies in the regions are Abdi Karie Qoorqoor from Galmudug, Abdi-Aziz Laftagaren, the embattled Ali Gudlawe from Hirshabelle and Omar Filish from Benadir. Last but not least, the majority of MPs and the public support his policies and incorruptible stand.
The characters have changing roles and destinies. Some go from hero, or hero’s friends, to villain over the seasons. Some, like Farmajo, Deni and Qoorqoor, keep their main roles throughout the series. Others are barely visible in the first season but have increased their presence over time. Other characters, disgraced or having lost their capacity to harm, like Prime Minister Khayre, are relegated to the background to play a lesser role or even disappear altogether.
Season 1: September 17 Agreement
In this season, Deni and Madobe are the local villains. The international villains are represented by James Swan, located in Mogadishu, Uhuru Kenyatta from Kenya, and Ismail Omar Guelleh from Djibouti.
The first season started slowly with early June 2020 with Qoorqoor who just put up with Galmudug state opposing factions and in the process of disarming local militias with the help of Farmajo and Khayre. In return Qoorqoor plays a major role by trying to reconcile the opposing sides on the upcoming federal elections after Halima “Yarey” has requested an extension to carry out the one-person-one-vote.
On one side, there’s the federal government team represented by Farmajo and Khayre and on the other side, their opponents Said Deni and Ahmed Madobe, and between the two sides there are the flexible Qoorqoor, Laftagareen and Ware. The second round of talks in Dhusamareb is a success and an accord is cluded on July 23.
On July 25, the Parliament defeats PM Khayre’s government in a surprise non-confidence vote. The people are caught off guard and are later informed about Khayre’s secret deals with the main villains to undermine Farmajo. The scheme is discovered and Farmajo’s allied at the Parliament act quickly to remove him. There’s no prime minister for the next two months until after the September 17 agreement was signed and ratified.
The outcome of the first season was the repealing of the One-person-One-vote direct election ratified in 2018 and the endorsement of the Indirect election system on September 17 between the federal government and the regional states. The agreement was welcomed by all political stakeholders as the end of two-year stalemate between the two sides but nonetheless a mistake that would set the stage for the coming crisis. The deal was also signed in extremis as it prevented December 2020 Parliamentary election to be postponed.
Season 2: Blocking the elections
By mid-November, new contentions emerge. Puntland and Jubaland regional states’ leaders, after visiting their foreign handers, the Arab Emirates and Kenya, have turned around and put forward new conditions to launch the elections.
Against the backdrop, the union of presidential candidates (UPC) holed up at the Jazeera Hotel started a relentless trench warfare to stop an election process they have no say. Also, air strikes by the Kenyan Air Force and cross-border attacks by the armed militia of warlord Abdirashid Janan are terrorizing the population of the Gedo region in southern Somalia.
This is the first success for the opposition and their foreign supporters, whose main representatives camp not far from the presidential palace, in reinforced shipping containers scattered in the Halane fortified district. James Swan scours the regions and asks Farmajo’s allied regional leaders, such as Laftagareen, Qoorqoor, and Gudlawe, not to interfere between Farmajo and his opponents.
The second opposition’s achievement was to use delaying tactics until February 7, when Farmajo’s term expired. This is an incredible feat offered by Said Deni and Ahmed Madobe who blocked the elections until the presidential mandate expires and the hawkish “presidential candidates” can force the president to resign.
Everyone holds its breath until the Farmajo’s meeting with the Parliament at the end of his term and the season. Some lawmakers try to prevent an extension of his term, many others hope a motion would be tabled but it doesn’t happen. The season ends with a question mark. Would he able to lead the nation to the elections and overcome the risk of opposition violence?
Season 3: To the edge of disaster
The third season was the very eventful time for the clearly concerted attack coming from Said Deni, Ahmed Madobe and the Jazeera Hotel opposition candidates that. This one season is marked by the countdown to the ICJ maritime case hearing due on March 15.
Then, after Ahmed Deni and Ahmed Madobe intentionally block the last round of Dhusamareb talks just two days before the end of President Farmajo’s term, the country goes through a period of uncertainty that threatens the stability and the future development of Somalia.
Right after the clock turns midnight, on February 8, opposition candidates are incensed and overjoyed that the president has no legitimacy to stay in power. Hassan Sheikh Mahamoud and Ahmed Sheikh Sharif parade heavily armed militiamen with technicals in the capital and try to convince Mohamed Mursal, the Speaker of the Parliament to declare the collapse of the Farmajo administration and the formation of a unity government with the opposition.
As the opposition prepares for a showdown with the government, Prime Minister Mohamed Roble steps in and organizes a technical committee in Baidoa on February 15 and 16 to resolve the contentious details of the election talks.
On February 19, the election impasse put Somalia on the brink of a civil war with the opposition attempt to violently topple the President. At the same time, there’s a media campaign to demonize the president Farmajo and an international frenzy to support the opposition. In the face of Farmajo firmness to not resign, keep a tight security in the capital and continue to extend a hand to recalcitrant regional state leaders, the crisis subsides by Roble meeting with the Mogadishu-based opposition candidates.
Puntland and Jubaland leaders forced President Farmajo to come down to the Afisiyoni Airbase Tent and leave his security details. Farmajo accepts but can’t have them finalize the September 17 election deal. He requests the Parliament to take over the elections issue and lawmakers vote to go back to the previously suspended one-person-one-vote. And Farmajo signed the new bill which also extend his term by two years into law on April 12. Everyone is happy to start the Ramadan in peace, or so they think.
Season 4: Roble, the opposition saviour
This season starts with the opposition readying to attack the capital bringing militias from the regions. Many Western countries lash out at Farmajo for signing into law his term extension and stopping election talks with Deni and Madobe. As with every time Farmajo wins and opposition forces are stranded, they are provided with a new script, courtesy of the “international community”. The warmongering speech degenerated into violence leading to the closure of several arteries of the capital and the displacement of residents fleeing the clashes.
For the sake of peace, Roble intervenes and, together with Qoorqoor and Gudlawe, advocates the discredited September 17 deal. Farmajo, seeing the backlash that parliament’s vote has generated within the opposition and a complicit international community, calls on parliament to revert to the old deal.
On May 1, Farmajo cedes some of his executive powers to Roble to deal with finalizing the contentious elections. There is an atmosphere of victory in the air for opposition parties, foreign and local. Once Roble is confirmed to take over the elections, countries that were fueling unrest in Somalia line up to welcome him. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Egypt, Kenya, Djibouti and United Kingdom, all gave him their support if he betrays Farmajo.
Roble, strong with all the support he received, takes steps to curtail Farmajo’s re-election by conceding more power to the opposition. His confidence is stronger after his visit to UK on July 27. And early, he is confident enough to ignore president Farmajo’s directives to not enter into an agreement with foreign countries until after a new government is elected. He travels to Kenya and signs secret deals with Uhuru Kenyatta.
This is the only season Farmajo is not the main character besides some ceremonial appearances. he season ends with August 23 announcement of the new election deal between the federal and the regional states.
Season 5: Roble is out of the closet
Prime minister Roble has now placed his cards and is ready to reveal his true nature. On September 2, he uses the case of a young NISA agent who has disappeared more than two months earlier to attack Fahad Yasin, Farmajo’s most reliable friend and the NISA’s Director. Roble fired him and appoints a new director as the head of the agency. He then fired Hassan Hundubey, the internal security Minister, and appoints Abdullahi Noor, an opposition figure nicknamed “30 year-30 Millions”.
The public is shocked to learn that the whole time the fox was hiding on the farm awaiting his moment. He has been a member of Dam-Jadid (meaning New Blood), a politico-religious brotherhood. The same group that most of the opposition is from. He has received an advance of a large amount of money from Uhuru and is waiting for the rest once he takes the maritime case out of court is playing his game. He wants to replace all the security chiefs loyal to Farmajo to oust the president long before any election. On September 16, as a shrewd politician, Farmajo acts faster and uses a constitutional process that limits Roble’s power to remove other officials..
Roble is stunned by this trick and runs to his British mentor, Kate Foster, in the Halane district. The following day, in New York, the British ambassador at the UN summons the Security Council for an urgent closed-door meeting on the “deterioration” situation in Somalia. Members at the Security Council are aware of British deep involvement in the Somali imbroglio and are not swayed by this unjustified concern.
However, the pro-opposition “international community”, UK leading the pack, the USA, France and the Arab League, silent as long as Roble was dismantling Farmajo’s powers and security, join the fray and call for Farmajo and Roble to settle their “dispute” and focus on the elections.
President Farmajo has conceded so many times to survive and last as much longer as possible and his executive powers as the head of the national security is the last thing he would let go. In this last season, still ongoing, the opposition broke out inside his own government and he is fighting to tooth and nail to minimize the damages.
However, now that Roble is struggling to shake things up, the British “penholder” let Uhuru take matters into his own hands. Increasingly unstable, the Kenyan president tries to make Farmajo lose his temper and make rash decisions. As the date of the ICJ’s Oct. 12 decision draws near, if Farmajo resists Uhuru’s last desperate attacks in the days and weeks to come, this season that could be the last, would end positively for him. This saga starts with Farmajo and will finish with him.
