The publication of two communiques in recent days has stirred the anti-Somali opposition in Somalia and raised questions as about if Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble flipped to opposition.
On August 7, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo issued a decree in which he prohibits all state institutions from signing, during this sensitive election period, agreements. He said deals should not be made with foreign entities until a new parliament and government are elected or risk harming the country.
The next day, Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble also issued another press release in which he said in what looked like a response to the president’s document that only the government is constitutionally empowered to do everything in its power to manage the country as it sees fit.
The president’s endless concessions
These two seemingly contradictory publications reinvigorated an unimaginative opposition. This opposition, the most virulent of which comes from the presidential candidates, amplified the disagreement between the two leaders who many thought were very close.
Yet this presidential decree has been loudly demanded by the opposition since the beginning of the year. There was a lot of commotion in January when representatives of foreign oil companies visited Mogadishu.
Since the start of the electoral process last year, Farmajo has become famous to have made many concessions to an opposition known to break or stall past agreements, make endless hardline demands and not hesitate to use hate speech and violence to advance their demands.
On May 1, the president acceded to a major demand from the opposition asking him to hand over his executive power to the first minister who in their eyes was more accommodating.
PM concessions to local opposition
Since the Prime Minister took over the direction of the federal elections, the spirits had calmed a little to resume with intensity once they found out odds were on Farmajo’s favor even after they had secured major concessions.
In recent months, courting the PM has also become opposition’s favorite activity to diminish Farmajo’s stature. Yet, he remains more than ever very popular among the population, elected representatives, the armed forces, but also financial bodies who appreciate the disciplines in public finances under his mandate.
Roble is a soft-spoken man but, in his quest to calm things down and find compromises, bypassed the most fundamental principles. The public was shocked to him welcoming into his home the same opposition leaders who in April tried to overthrow the government by force and fired on security forces and Mogadishu residents forcing many to flee the hostility.
On May 27, he also listened to their whims by replacing almost all the officials of the electoral commissions so the nation can move forward with the elections.
In a country traumatized by the violence, many welcomed him to avert another civil war which opponents promised if they were not listened to.
Compromise with foreign opposition
A couple of weeks ago, PM Roble and his head of diplomacy. Mohamed Abdirizak, were summoned to London where meetings were held with PM Boris Johnson and British foreign diplomats.
Little has filtered out of these meetings in London, the categorical rejection of President Farmajo on the outcome and the fire that brooded in Villa Somalia the few days before the 7th.
Many people suspect that there has been talk of British support for Kenya’s South Somali Sea claims, still awaiting a judgment from the International Court of Justice but Kenya instead wants this settled out of court.
On August 7, nationalist lawmaker Dahir Amin Jesow sounded the alarm bells on news of an imminent visit by Kenyan Foreign Minister Rachelle Omamo and a possible departure of the PM for Nairobi. He called on the president and the prime minister to take action against these advances by Kenya which risk compromising the electoral process.
The Kenyan delegation led by Minister Omamo did indeed arrive in the country on August 8 amidst discord and the next day a confusing and too vague agreement was published by PM Roble who then went to Nairobi to meet the 10th Uhuru Kenyatta, the controversial Kenyan president.
However, to add to the oddity which confirms what many feared, the “international partners” led by UNSOM are releasing a fund of USD 7.2 million to assist Somalia in the costs associated with the elections.
This aid, made available to Somalia under the United Nations Electoral Support Program, has been delayed until now, coinciding with Somali concessions to Kenya, of which we will get more details in the coming days or weeks.
Anti-farmajists fanning the flame
Immediately after the interview with MP Jesow, the president published his circular which caught the population by surprise. The following day, the surprise gave way to unease with the publication of the Prime Minister’s press release which put the Somali political scene in disarray.
The presidential candidates, the leaders of Puntland and Jubaland – part of the shamed pro-Kenyan lobby – took the opportunity to support Roble. In return, the prime minister did not hesitate to receive some of them, such as Abdirahman Abdishakur and the two most corrupt former presidents, in a show of defiance.
The lobby added their own pinch of salt into the mix advocating for the unconditional entry of the banned Kenyan Qat/Miro. This anti-Somali party is well aware that this retaliatory action by the Hassan Khayre government had been undertaken in response to Kenya’s hostile activities.
Whatever the case, these pseudo-candidates, their media, NGOs and think-tanks, whose division is their lifeline, the slightest misunderstanding between the president and his prime minister is an opportunity that must be harvested, intensified and prolonged until the presidential election in October.
As for Roble, it is incomprehensible why he wants to risk a political career that flourished under president Farmajo? And why does he seek to please and be seen with controversial individuals like Abdirahman Abdishakur who is behind the Kenyan claims on the Somali Sea?
I think that Mogadishu opposition candidates are confused what is going on between Kenya and Somali conflicts.
Farmajo knows that Roble is road block to opposition candidates. Now Farmajo and Roble are in one team without cost and oppositions are hopping good thing will came out their violent rejection of the Farmajo’s two years increase. It is seems that Farmajo is exercising his power grip and the oppositions scattered politically.